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Only 48 hours before the NYC mayoral election, Michael Lange issued a bold forecast – not just the winner overall, but block by block. The analyst, a political analyst born and raised in the city, devoted over a decade in progressive politics and has become a kind of local celebrity recently for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He published his highly detailed forecast map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani was victorious while failed to predict the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his newsletter, the Narrative War. Lange has a flair for witty coinages. He pointed out, as an example, the divide between the “commie corridor”, running from Park Slope to another area to a third locale, where he forecasted (accurately) that Mamdani would win by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, “the Free Press and financial newspapers outrank the New York Times” in audience and most voters favored Cuomo, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

How was your election night?

I had to do that because they were dropping around 200,000 votes into the system every few minutes! I felt somewhat anxious initially: The candidate led the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but there were large groups of votes that came in later and his lead dropped from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, there was a world in which election day went kind of poorly for Mamdani, in which Cuomo was going to end up essentially increasing his support from the Democratic primary. However the winner gained half a million supporters to his initial base, and this was critical why he won. He campaigned and greatly broadened his base from the first round.

Coalition Building

Where did the mayor-elect get those extra votes from?

He built the coalition that the left long aimed for: diverse racially, youthful, tenants and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He improved considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the earlier election. Plus he boosted his core of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He created the coalition that the left long aimed for: multiracial, youthful, tenants and residents squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It’s definitely a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Muslims. Electors in ethnic enclaves that supported Trump last year backed the progressive this year. But I wouldn’t say he was gaining white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Impact

A major development of the night was the record turnout. Who did that help?

Both sides. Turnout was significantly higher than anticipated. I thought it could exceed 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – that is a huge number of participants. Existed a substantial anti-Mamdani block, energized, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that sufficed to win.

You predicted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Right now you would say he’s likely to surpass 50%. He has just over 50% but there’s still probably 200,000 votes uncounted as of Wednesday morning. So I don’t think it’s definitive, but I believe it’s likely, and I hope he does so afterwards none can claim the Republican was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His support completely collapsed.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any borough. Not even Tottenville in the borough, similar to an 88% Trump area. That truly was unexpected. Cuomo held very white areas, affluent zones and devout communities, and then added all of these conservatives on the island who had a strong turnout. I believe occurred a lot of tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened prior to the former president endorsed for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome unless the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your often-discussed “commie corridor” – was support for the candidate overwhelming in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view existed a little dilution of the commie corridor in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, for example, the property owners and residents supported the independent. Thus there existed a little resistance. But no, mostly the leftist base is a key factor why Mamdani won – he was polling between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the election we reported on if the candidate was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he succeeded?

Exist neighborhoods with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as specific locales – where he performed strongly. But in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Upper East Side, his position on Israel was influential there. Likewise in the moderate communities like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned the independent. And also, there are Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, they were strongly supportive. Therefore I don’t know if existed crazy narrative-busters on this one, but he retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the another locale with large leads.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what New York represents in politics? Will progressive base serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that key political leaders from progressives hail from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that there will be additional examples – people will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

But I believe that every city in America can have similar progressive hubs. Cities are the epicenters of progressive influence in the nation – because they’re young, tenancy is common and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the disparities we face.